Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Conspiracy vs. Self Interest

Wall Street is screwing us.

The Chinese are financially attacking us.

The Illuminati are controlling us.

What a load of pure, unadulterated bullshit.

Wall Street isn't screwing us.  Some very greedy, controlling, evil people; in some financial firms addressed in lower Manhattan and other places around the world; are doing all they can to rig a game that they know and understand the rules of.  They follow most rules, break some rules and lobby for the repeal or passing of other rules.  All of this, to sucker other greedy "investors" into unrealistic returns (Maddoff), reduced taxes (Lehman Bros.) or hiding of money offshore (Switzerland, Panama, Cayman, etc.).  The greedy are screwing the greedy and the average schmo is just collateral damage.

Comparing the stock and bond market to No Limit Hold 'em, the average schmo's life savings would just be "dead money".  The players that understand the math of their game - pot odds, implied odds and can "read" hands will come out with the winning hands in the long run. Thus the full time "investors" with inside information or better and more current analysis will have more "winning hands" then incompetent "investors" and the "dead money". This is how it has been in the past and will continue into the future.  Is this a conscious "Conspiracy" or is this just self interest layered upon self interest that somehow forms a common pattern that is interpreted as a "Conspiracy".  

When humanity follows the gold, instead of the golden rule - this common pattern of a "Conspiracy" is inevitable.  Self interest is based on a philosophy of scarcity.  If there is only 21 metres by 21 metres of gold ever mined in the history of the world, then what percentage of that gold can be acquired for the least value and sold or hoarded at the most value. That would be an easy calculation if we left it at the 21M by 21M cube.  Now add options and futures, ETF's, 24 karat or 18 karat gold jewelry, central bank precious metals policies based on nationalistic self interest, current gold production, future gold production, fear, greed....  It then becomes a much more complicated calculation as to what the true value of gold is.

And let's not forget that in the past, those with the most effective military would confiscate the gold from those with less "power".  Or a government might make a new rule that no private citizen could own gold, that couldn't happen could it ?  Well it was done by the US government at the time of the last Great Depression.  So is it a scam to scare people into buying gold at inflated prices and then confiscate that same gold for devalued US dollars, is this a "Conspiracy" or just self interest layered upon self interest that somehow forms a common pattern that is interpreted as a "Conspiracy".


The Chinese are taking over the world's economy and will screw us all.  Really ?  This is a nation that has to feed, clothe and house billions of people.  A nation that has various ethnic groups that are attempting to break away from the centralized Beijing government, a nation that is so desperate to maintain internal power that they must over pay for many commodities and technologies in order to feed an unrelenting appetite for economic growth and international influence.

In Canada, if 30 million people are pissed at high taxes - they have an election, nothing changes, a hockey game pre-empts a national debate by its leaders and within 6 months all is forgotten.

In the US, if 300 million people are pissed at high taxes, they have an election, nothing changes, the NFL goes on strike and captures the attention of the press and citizens. Then the media go on and on and on and on arguing politics from a conservative or liberal point of view until everyone is tired of hearing about it.  The NFL starts its season and all is forgotten until the next election, next terrorist attack, next war (kinetic military action ?) or the government confiscates privately held gold.

In China, if a billion people turn on every electric appliance, light or other power source at the same time for 1 month - there will be a crisis.  If 1 billion people decide to eat 30% more food for a month - there is a crisis.  If a billion people all decide to stand still in the streets of Beijing for a month - there is a crisis.  If a billion people decide to go on strike and not work for a month at essential services - there is a crisis.

If the US dollar dramatically goes down in value as it relates to gold:

  • US interest rates should go up (but the Fed says they won't until 2013), USA citizen's debt would be affected by that action (but, it won't because debt will be repaid with devalued dollars due to inflation) - but US exports will be energized and compete or beat the EEU and the Asian Tigers
  • Canadians will buy more US real estate and cars as a result of a stronger Loonie, will get the extra cable bundle with super fast Internet and unlimited texting and will complain about paying taxes - any taxes.
  • China will have a crisis (the Yuan is unofficially fixed to the US dollar to give them an export advantage, $ 1.6 Trillion in US debt bought by the Chinese with those export dollars that were acquired by unfair trade practices and monetary policies - will be repaid by the US in an equally underhanded way - with devalued US currency).
  • In the end - the "average schmo" is "dead money" and collateral damage.
Now is this a "Conspiracy" orchestrated by the US government, the Multinational Banking Conglomerates, the Illuminati or any number of groups, religions or races that have been blamed over the centuries past ?

Come on - quit believing in the bogey man.  Let's all admit that we are driven by self interest and quit blaming the "Conspiracy".  We layer self interest, upon self interest, upon self interest.  Justifying our self interest by blaming the conspirators, the powerful, those smarter or more devious.  Let's stop that nonsense.

Let's prosecute and hold accountable the people that break the laws, let's hold our politicians accountable by participating in relevant debates and let's teach our children the Golden Rule.

More importantly; quit panicking, stay out of debt, put away for a rainy day, get and stay healthy and love your family.

In the end, most of us are just "dead money".

(Read the previous blog for advice on how to do the right thing)